![]() “This study illustrates the fact that cutting greenhouse gas emissions remains vital to prevent the worst impacts on the Arctic,” Professor Notz states. As sea ice declines, the areas of open water absorb more heat leading to the increase of ocean temperatures – beginning a cycle of warming and melting.Īnother finding from the study suggests that an ice-free Arctic in the winter months appears possible if carbon dioxide continues to be emitted at high levels. The loss of sea ice in the summer will have a profound impact on our environment – influencing ocean circulation and hastening the warming of the Arctic. Even if we reduce emissions substantially, keeping global warming levels below 2☌, Arctic sea ice will nevertheless disappear occasionally in summers before 2050.” Project coordinator, Dirk Notz from the University of Hamburg, comments, “We are very surprised by these findings. km (an area typically considered to be ice-free) in summers before 2050 – even if greenhouse gases are reduced significantly. The study found that in most of the simulations, the Arctic Ocean is predicted to drop below 1 million sq. ![]() The models encompass various hypothetical scenarios, including trajectories based on the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. ![]() In a recent study, published in Geophysical Research Letters, scientists from 21 research institutes simulated the evolution of Arctic sea-ice using 40 different global climate models. The daily Arctic sea-ice extent minimum in September 2019 was the second lowest in the 40-year satellite record. Since satellite-based measurements have begun in the 1970s, data show a trend of more ice melting away during summers and less new ice forming during winters. This new forecast, which used continuous and consistent satellite observations generated via ESA’s Climate Change Initiative, suggests that the future of the Arctic’s sea-ice cover critically depends on future carbon dioxide emissions.Įach year, Arctic sea ice goes through a seasonal cycle, growing in area and thickness through the cooler winter months before shrinking back again as temperatures rise in the spring and summer, with the minima occurring usually in September. ![]() A new analysis, using global climate models, predicts that most of the Arctic Ocean could become ice-free during summer by 2050. ![]()
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